As it is likely to be an R wave year, Oz will likely come a lot closer and may even squeak out a win if the wave is big enough, but I don't consider him favored. In a neutral year I’d say he’s clearly favored. And Fetterman is a pretty “good fit” for his state. Now granted, Trump (once, barely) won in PA with no better credentials, but still.
CROSSTAB MIDTERM PREDICTOR TV
Which really isn’t too surprising as he is a deeply controversial carpet-bagger with no political experience whose claim to fame is being a TV medical quack. Obviously plenty of time for things to change, but this poll (the first decent head to head poll we’ve had since the primary?) shows Oz clearly starts from behind. RealClearPolitics has 218-183 (D-R) House with 34 tossup and 46-46 Senate with 8 tossup, while The Cook Political Report is at 213-190 (D. That’s only three points more than the actual result, so even if you assume the same error applies here with Trump off the ballot (not logical in itself since polls were more accurate here in 2018), that’s still Fetterman +6. The mid-term election predictions are starting to roll in. In fact I struggle to think of a single poll that had Biden up by as much as 9. They didn’t overestimate Dems in PA nearly as much as in MI/WI. Remember, polls in this part of the country always overestimate Democrats. Oz could certainly lose, but I'm not buying that he's this unpopular or Fetterman is this popular. His favorability rating is abysmal, especially with Independents. Obviously Fetterman isn't going to win by 9, there is 13% undecided and Rs will consolidate around Oz more than they are right now.īut there is severe warning signs for Oz that you can't just wash away. Fetterman also does slightly better among 55-64 (fetterman wins by 12, mastriano wins by 7). And Fetterman does a lot better among independents than Shapiro does (and Oz worse than Mastriano).įetterman wins 35-44 while Mastriano does. Mastriano indeed consolidates Republicans more at this point than Oz (divisive primary is a reason for that). I'm comfortable in this poll because Mastriano overperforms Oz by quite a lot (also Suffolk/USA Today poll)Īnd political pundits/experts also said Mastriano was too radical for Pennsylvania, but if Oz clearly has a lower percentage while the other candidate has a larger candidate, than it doesn't bode well for Oz and he at least has a lot of work to do if they want to win this election.įetterman definitely starts with an edge.Īlso interesting to compare demographics.Ĭertain to vote: Shapiro 46, Mastriano 40įetterman wins women by more, while also more women seem to be undecided. This is still a swing state, R midterm or not, and candidate quality matters. This is still a swing state, R midterm or not, and candidate quality matters.īut i also feel that people overestimate the environment and also corrections because it is a R environment or a midterm during a D presidency. It would be an error if election day was today and Oz won. Technically election day is in november, this is a poll in june. Lol it's a lead outside the margin of error This will be fun to look back at and laugh at in November.
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